sMMArt Money: UFC 168 – Weidman Vs. Silva 2

For many, we have arrived at the most highly anticipated mixed martial arts fight of the year.  Most of those "many" would be referencing the Silva-Weidman rematch in making that claim.  However, in the wake of the first women’s TUF which featured the most volatile rivalry in the sport (perhaps in all of sports, at the moment), a not-so-tiny minority may be more eager for the second bantamweight tango between Champ Ronda Rousey and Meisha Tate. 

As I see it, both are tantalizing.  Sixteen years into his professional career, does the Spider still have enough spring in his step to wrest the strap away from the much younger and stronger Weidman?  With concerns mounting in regards to her emotional stability,  is now the time for Ronda Rousey to crumple under the pressure?  Saturday will be a night of rematches, and a night of questions answered. 

Here is my look at the goods and the odds for UFC 168.  Auld lang syne, friends.

FEATHERWEIGHTS

Robbie “Problems” Peralta [16-4-1 MMA] -185

Estevan “El Terrible” Payan [14-4-1 MMA] +150

This could be the most evenly matched tilt of the night between two 145-pounders who were rather soundly decisioned in their respective previous outings.  Payan had a pint of plasma beat out of him by Jeremy Stephens at UFC 160, while Peralta hung with – and even wobbled – Akira Corassani back in April.  Peralta has the heavier hands, I would argue, and that may be the deciding factor.

PREDICTION: Peralta by TKO, Round 2.

TIP: Bet moderately on Peralta

WELTERWEIGHTS

“Vicious” Bobby Voelker [24-10-0 MMA] -160

William “Patolino” Macario [6-1-0 MMA] +130

Voelker looked ragged in while being KO’d by the very dangerous Robbie Lawler in July.  But he has a tremendous experience edge on 22-year-old Macario who lost in the TUF: Brazil finale in his last outing.  Although he’s on a two-fight skid, Bobby has finished 20 opponents over his career, including two TKOs of Roger Bowling.  If Voelker was able to put together a solid camp and still has his heart in the game, then this should go his way.

PREDICTION: Voelker by decision, Round 3.

TIP: Bet moderately on Voelker.

WELTERWEIGHTS

Siyar “The Great” Bahadurzada [21-5-1 MMA] -155

John “Doomsday” Howard [21-8-0 MMA] +125

The only Afghani on the UFC roster, Siyar was on a vicious tear before absorbing a 15-minute pummeling at the hands of Dong Hyun Kim in March.  He had KO/TKO’d six of his previous seven foes, including a tough Paulo Thiago at UFC: Sweden 1.  “The Great” needs to reestablish himself in the division, and I feel that he has the heart and ambition to do so.  John Howard, after a confounding game of middleweight pattycake with the fast fading Uriah Hall, has dropped back down to 170 pounds.  He’s lined up against a good number of marquee opponents in his career – Matt Brown, Thiago Alves, Jake Ellenberger, Dan Miller – but lost to all of them.  I expect Bahadurzada to land some solid leather on Saturday night.

PREDICTION: Bahadurzada by KO, Round 1.

TIP: Bet heavy on Bahadurzada.

FEATHERWEIGHTS

Dennis Siver [21-9-0] -265

Manny “The Anvil” Gamburyan [13-7-0]  +205

This won’t be Manvil’s toughest challenge to date, but he should not take comfort in that notion.  Siver is one of the strongest men and hardest strikers in the division, while Manny is very very tough, but small and not as highly skilled.  Siver suffered a hard-fought TKO to Cub Swanson at UFC 162, but he remains a threat to the entire division.  The Russo-German kickboxer, too, is due for one of his trademark spinning back kicks.  Mark my words!

PREDICTION: Siver by TKO, Round 1

TIP: Bet heavily on Siver.

LIGHTWEIGHTS

Gleison Tibau [28-9-0 MMA] -145

Michael “The Menace” Johnson [13-8-0 MMA] +115

There’s a reason that Tibau is a slight favorite in this match-up: he is a beast.  There are reports that the Brazilian cuts thirty pounds to make weight.  Not only that, but this is Tibau’s 21^st appearance in the Octagon and he has the most lightweight wins (13) in the history of the UFC.  Johnson looked spectacular in his one-sided (and surprising) beatdown of Joe Lauzon.  However, he does not have many weapons and has not had a tremendous degree of consistency as a UFC fighter.  I do not expect that to change on Saturday.

PREDICTION: Tibau by Submission, Round 2.

TIP: Bet moderately on Tibau.

MIDDLEWEIGHTS

Uriah Hall [7-4-0 MMA] -310

Chris “The Crippler” Leben [22-10-0 MMA] +240

Most assuredly, one of these two men will be receiving a pink slip after this fight is over.  Hall, though he was a terrifying monster for most of the TUF 17 season, has fought like a wet blanket in his last two outings.  What’s sad for Chris Leben is that he is a heavy underdog nonetheless.  Once a big draw with the fans, Leben came back from a one-year drug suspension to look very rusty in a decision loss to Derek Brunson.  Though his more recent outing against Andrew Craig was better, we have not seen the old “Crippler” – the one who finished Wanderlei and Akiyama and Sakara and Santiago – in about two years.  For the sake of a good fight, let’s hope that both of these men have turned the corner.

PREDICTION: Leben by TKO, round 2.

TIP: Bet lightly on Leben.

FEATHERWEIGHTS

Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier [14-3-0 MMA] -205

Diego “DB” Brandao [18-8-0 MMA] +165

Perhaps the safest prediction here is that this match-up will be a fight-of-the-night candidate.  Brandao is coming off of a wild one against Daniel Pineda at UFC Fight Night 26 in August.  But the bad news for the Brazilian is that he is facing one of the most dangerous men in the division: a Dustin Poirier who has returned to form.  Poirier was commanding in his August defeat of the very tough Eric Koch.   With a win, Poirier could see himself get back in line for a title shot, and he has a lot to lose.

PREDICTION: Poirier by decision, Round 3.

TIP: Bet heavily on Poirier.

LIGHTWEIGHTS

Jim Miller [22-4-1 MMA] -400

Fabricio “Morango” Camoes [14-7-1 MMA] +300

Due to knee surgery, Camoes has not seen the inside of a cage in eighteen months, last losing a decision to Melvin Guillard.  In the mean time, the highly regarded Miller has fought twice: as the victor in an instant classic against Joe Lauzon at UFC 155, and on the short-end of a brawl against Pat Healy (which ended up a NC due to Healy’s positive test for cannibus).  The odds here are lopsided for good reason, and reflect one of Joe Silva’s more befuddling pairings for the event.  Miller is a hard-working, well-rounded, insightful fighter who, I believe, surely will put into practice the lessons he learned from the Healy fight.

PREDICTION: Miller by submission, Round 1.

TIP: Bet heavily on Miller.

HEAVYWEIGHTS

Josh “The Warmaster” Barnett [33-6-0 MMA] -200

Travis “Hapa” Browne [15-1-1 MMA] +160

What’s not to love about this fight? One the one hand, we have an old-school catch wrestler in Barnett.  He’s both a brawler and a tactician and a grizzled vet who will put his money where his mouth is.  On the other hand, I have a hard-hitting, long-limbed athlete in the Hawaiian Browne.  The winner gets Werdum in a title contention eliminator.  Both men are en fuego.  Barnett absolutely manhandled Frank Mir at UFC 164, while, at UFC Fight Night 26, Browne survived a frightening assault by Alistair Overeem to comeback and finish the muscular Dutchman with a front kick to the face.  Barnett has earned the favorite status in this fight, but do not be shocked by an upset here.

PREDICTION: Barnett via submission, Round 2.

TIP: Bet lightly on Barnett.

BANTAMWEIGHTS

(Champion) “Rowdy” Ronda Rousey [7-0-0 MMA] -750

Meisha “Cupcake” Tate [13-4-0 MMA] +475

Rousey, as we all know, has finished every single fight in the exact same way – via first-round armbar.  And every single opponent has spent her entire training camp preparing for that very move.  So, I don’t expect anything major to change here.  Rousey may be the sport’s hungriest competitor (of either gender).  She is the definition of world-class.  Tate is a very tough woman, and was likely winning her last fight against Cat Zingano before it was stopped.  Perhaps she’ll make it into the second round this time.  But she simply does not have the fiery dedication and grit that Rousey has.  No WMMA fighter does.

PREDICTION: Rousey by armbar, Round 2.

TIP: Do not bet on this fight.  Not enough juice in the odds.

MIDDLEWEIGHTS

(Champion) Chris “All-American” Weidman [10-0-0 MMA] +140

Anderson “The Spider” Silva [33-5-0 MMA] -170

“It was a fluke.”  “Anderson did not take the fight seriously.”  “He thought he was invincible.”  “It was a lucky shot.”  The time for excuses is over.  Pound-for-pound great Anderson Silva must overcome true career adversity for the first time in nearly nine years.  Like no other, he has mowed his way through the competition and -- before Weidman knocked Anderson’s eyes back into his head -- the Spider truly looked unbeatable.  The general opinion seems split.  On one side, we have those who believe in Weidman’s wrestling, his size, his athleticism, his strength, his youth.  On the other side, we have those who believe in Silva’s technique, his precision, his cleverness, his experience, his majesty.

Anderson is 38 years old.  39 in April.  And, as far as I know, he does not indulge in career-lengthening TRT treatment.  A loss here would mean a true changing of the guard, even more dramatic than Georges St-Pierre’s recent relinquishment of the welterweight belt.  Those in the know say that the Spider has never been more focused.  But is that enough?  I think so.

PREDICTION: Silva by TKO, Round 2.

TIP: Bet lightly on Silva.

Werdum. Striker.

There is no denying that "Big Country" Roy Nelson is a tough guy and a feared striker.  That is why so many people were surprised when the so-called BJJ specialist Fabricio Werdum bludgeoned Nelson with an arsenal of attacks at UFC 143.

Believe it or not, Werdum's performance may have been the most diverse display of striking in the history of the UFC heavyweight division.  Most prominent were the vicious, unceasing Muay Thai knee strikes that split Nelon's face open in the 1st and dropped him like a brick at the start of the 2nd.  But that's not all. Werdum landed an impressive mix of stiff jabs and crosses, snapped sharp kicks off of Nelson's thighs and gut, landed a heavy head kick, and even threw a whipping wheel kick that nearly connected.  Most people had my reaction to Werdum's performance: whoa.

I wasn't as surprised as announcers Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg.  Rogan repeatedly pointed out how much Werdum's striking unexpectedly improved for this fight.  However, an analysis of Werdum's career shows that striking has never been a stranger to his game.  Yes, he lost to Overeem in an ugly and poorly-strategized match.  However, Werdum handily won the stand-up in that battle, landing 55 standing strikes to Overeem's 33!  In the match before that, we all know that "Vai Cavalo" shattered the legend of Fedor with a triangle choke, involving no striking.  But, in the preceding match, he also outstruck and defeated formidable foe Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva, 73 to 61.

Even more importantly, Werdum's striking defense is unparalleled in the division.  He rarely finishes a fight bearing anything more than scratches (with the exception of his KO at the hands of Dos Santos).  He is evasive and elusive and slips in and out with his attacks.  It is that element -- his defense -- which makes him a real threat for the title.

It is my good fortune to be able to train at Werdum Combat Team in Venice, California on a weekly basis.  And, although I train only BJJ and work with Fabricio rarely, I do get to see him teach Muy Thai classes and demonstrate his kickboxing technique.  Werdum is no slouch.  He can bang with anyone in the division.

With Mir and Velazquez set to square off at UFC 148, it seems the logical match-up for Werdum is a healthy Shane Carwin... if that is possible.  If not, then few other fighters would represent the next logical step toward the title.  Perhaps Cheick Kongo.  But, frankly, Cheick will never be a contender.  Would the loser of Dos Santos/Overeem make sense?  Perhaps.

But, considering the history of the sport, it is very possible that one of the top four fighters -- Dos Santos, Overeem, Mir, or Velazquez -- will get injured, requiring a replacement.  Waiting in the wings is Fabricio "Vai Cavalo" Werdum.  Striker.

Demian Maia -- A New Dawn

Demian Maia is one of the most understated fighters in any division of the UFC.  Currently he is ranked by Sherdog as the #6 middleweight in the world.  One might contend that he deserves a spot as high as #4 when considering Nate Marquardt's ouster from the UFC due to elevated testosterone and Yushin Okami's recent bludgeoning at the hands of Anderson Silva.  Either way, Maia has racked up a 16-3 professional record, and torn his way through the ranks with almost unparalleled Brazilian Jiu Jitsu.  And, until recently, his striking has been almost non-existent.  Not anymore.

Maia went to decision with Mark Munoz, the #4 middleweight in the world, in June of 2011.  Although the decision was unanimous in Munoz's favor, Maia clearly won the first round, wobbling Munoz with a left hook, and arguably out-boxed The Filipino Wrecking Machine during the entirety of the match.  This, of course, was wildly unexpected.  Munoz was a feared and brutal striker.  Maia, just the opposite.

Even more impressive was Maia's submission of Chael Sonnen at UFC 95 in 2009.  Midway through the 1st round, Maia tossed Sonnen with a picture-perfect lateral drop, locked-in a mounted triangle and forced the tap.  Considering Sonnen's wrestling pedigree, an NCAA All-American and Olympic alternate, Maia's dominant technique was exceptionally impressive.  No one else in the UFC has ever rag-dolled Sonnen like that.

But, perhaps, what is most appealing about Maia is his demeanor.  Surrounded by talkers (Sonnen, Bisping) and juicers (Sonnen, Marquardt), Maia keeps quiet, works hard, and succeeds.  He lets pure technique and work ethic speak on his behalf.  Maia is the epitome of what is right with MMA.

Demian Maia is going to make quick work of Chris Weidman tonight in the UFC on Fox 2.  And when he does, it will be Yushin Okami in his crosshairs.

The Last Emperor Has No Clothes!

"The Emperor's New Clothes", a classic tale about an Emperor whose tailor convinces him that his new clothes are "invisible" to lesser people, is a very fitting allegory for the recent Fedor Emlianenko saga.  However, the "Last Emperor" is not the only ignorant buffoon in this case; so are the Strikeforce promoters and commentators, and the blind loyalists who insisted that Fedor is the greatest of all time, even though he has not defeated a UFC caliber fighter since his decision against Mirko Cro Cop in 2005.

It was Dana White who first cried out, "the emperor has no clothes!"  But the Fedor loyalists argued that Dana was a biased hype machine, who dismissed Fedor because he couldn't sign him.

After last nights humbling TKO at the hands of 42-year-old Dan Henderson, it appears that the myth of "The Last Emperor" has finally been dismantled.  This is Fedor's third loss by stoppage in a row, the first two coming against non-contender Fabricio Werdum and a ferocious Bigfoot Silva.  Dana has his vindication.

Not only has Fedor demonstrated that he is not a top-ten heavyweight, he has shown that, if he were to drop to the light heavyweight division, he would flounder there as well.  Hendo, after all, weighed in at only 207 pounds, and has fought as low as middleweight during his career.  And, if he can rag-doll Fedor (as he did last night), then it is reasonable to believe that there are a plethora of other heavyweights and 205-pounders who could do the same: Cain Velazquez, Junior Dos Santos, Machida, Shane Carwin, Jon Jones, Rampage, Lesnar, Barnett, Rashad.

Fedor is only 34 years old.  To call for his retirement due to age, I think, is absurd.  Guys like Hendo, Couture, and Herschel Walker have shown that Fedor might be abe to headline fights for another 5 or 10 years.  Anderson Silva, even, is 17 months older than Fedor, and is arguably in his prime.

However, if Fedor wants to stick around, then he has to make some serious changes -- in his camp, in his management, in his lifestyle, and in his mindset.  He should relocate to the United States, and surround himself with champions at a place like Greg Jackson's camp in Albuquerque or Rafael Cordeiro's King's MMA in Huntington Beach.  Or he should team up with guys that have the relentless drive that Fedor seems to lack right now: Chael Sonnen, Bigfoot Silva, even Hendo himself.

If "The Last Emperor" does not reinvent himself soon, he will be put out to pasture and will NOT be remembered as one of the greatest of all time.  He needs to objectively assess the state of his career and take the necessary steps -- outside of his comfort zone.

Put your pants on, Fedor.

The Phenom Will Rise Again

Vitor Belfort is the second most dangerous man fighting at middleweight in MMA.  Anderson, of course, is the first.  Although various other fighters might currently be ranked above "The Phenom" -- Okami, Jacare, Munoz, Chael, Bisping, Stann -- NONE of them can finish a fight as quickly and viciously as Vitor.  At 19 and 9, his record isn't pristine.  However, he has stopped a bevy of all-stars: Tank Abbott, Wanderlei Silva, Randy Couture, Matt Lindland, and Rich Franklin.  And, of course, he may have the fastest hands in the history of the UFC.

Anderson Silva finished Belfort in the first round of UFC 126.  But until the remarkable front-kick that ended the fight, Belfort was the aggressor.  And -- although close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades -- he threw more strikes, landed more strikes, and was on top of Anderson at one point.

 

Akiyama is a dynamic fighter, who brings some flash into the cage.  However, at UFC 133, Belfort will obliterate him with a firestorm of fisticuffs.  It will end in the first round.  And, when that happens, Vitor will be right back in the title picture.

From there, Vitor should face the winner of Chael Sonnen v. Brian Stann, which is expected to take place on October 8 at UFC 136.  Not only would that be a deserved match-up, it would be a huge draw for the UFC.  It may also be the precursor to another title shot.

UFC 132: The Grave Digger Cometh

UFC 132 was one of the most thrilling UFC main cards in recent memory.  For MMA fans, it is quite satisfying to witness these kinds of fireworks (no 4th of July pun intended) on the same day that Vladimir Klitschko and David Haye put on a snooze-fest for the boxing heavyweight championship.  HBO and boxing promoters marketed that fight as a return to glory for heavyweight boxing.  However, all it demonstrated was that, with huge guaranteed paydays regardless of performance (a reported 10 million pounds per fighter in this case), championship boxing is often a complete sham.

The UFC 132 main card, on the other hand, was thrilling from start to finish, with virtually every fighter showing tremendous skill, tenacity and, most importantly, heart.  Here is a recap, with some thoughts:

• Carlos Condit KO'd "Stun Gun" Kim three minutes into the first round.  Condit launched a magnificent flying knee that literally made Kim go cross-eyed on his way to the canvas.   As a result, "The Natural Born Killer" has made the case that he is the most dangerous fighter in the welterweight division.  He can take the fight anywhere and end it at a moment's notice.  Though Condit does not want to wait around for a title shot, he deserves the winner of GSP-Diaz.  And my money would be on him.

• Tito Ortiz submitted Ryan Bader with a beautiful guillotine in the first round.  This came after Ortiz slammed a right hook into Bader's cheek, making the younger fighter's legs go limp.  Some thought that this would be Ortiz's funeral... but Ortiz, indeed, was the grave digger at the end of the fight.  And, believe it or not, this puts Tito in the top-ten among UFC light heavyweights, and should earn him a shot against someone in the top five.  With numerous fighters already booked -- Bones v. Rampage, Shogun v. Forrest, Rashad v. Mr. Wonderful, and Lyoto v. the winner of Bones/Rampage -- there is no clear opponent for Tito's next fight.  He wants the winner of Griffin/Rua.  I'm not interested in another Griffin-Ortiz match-up.  But Shogun v. The Huntington Beach Badboy?  I'd buy a ringside seat to that.

• Dennis Siver defeated Matt Wiman via unanimous decision in what would have been fight of the night at most other UFC events.  All three judges had it 29-28 for Siver.  And, indeed, it is a fair argument to say that he took the first and third rounds.  However, Wiman bludgeoned the German for 3 minutes of the second round, and had him bleeding all over the canvas.  I would say a 10-8 round for Wiman was not completely out of the question.  Wiman, and the fans, were upset at the decision.  However, it was not a case of negligent judging.  In the end, both of these guys remain in the title picture in the lightweight division.

• Chris Leben put Wanderlei Silva to sleep in 27 seconds.  Despite the brutal KO, this was a very disappointing fight.  The Axe Murderer employed zero strategy in this fight and went toe-to-toe with Leben, throwing sloppy wide hooks.  This, certainly, is the dumbest thing a world-class martial artist like Silva could have done.  Sure, the fans like a slugfest.  However, when you go in chin-first against the Crippler, you have a good chance of ending up face down or, in this case, waving goodbye to your UFC contract.

• Finally, Dominick Cruz outlasted Urijah Faber in one of the best five-rounders we've seen in a while.  For 25 minutes, this back-and-forth battle went everywhere.  Both men put on a striking, wrestling, and grappling clinic that should be very humbling to other bantamweights viewing the contest.  Rightfully, Cruz retained the belt in a unanimous decision.  However, he never had Faber in trouble.  On the other hand, Faber had Cruz eating canvas on three separate occasions.  Faber's hands were heavier, but Cruz was more active, controlled the octagon better, and even out-wrestled the California Kid.  Although one imbecile judge scored it 50-45 for Cruz, these guys are clearly one and two in the division.  Cruz-Faber III should be scheduled immediately.  Don't waste their time with interim opponents.

Anti-Hug

Sportsmanship has gone too far in MMA.

I came to that conclusion when I saw Mark Munoz hug -- actually hug -- Demian Maia at the start of the third round of their UFC 131 bout.  Enough already.  That alone made me want Maia to knock Munoz into next week.  That kind of warm-fuzzy attitude may be a big part of the reason that Munoz underperformed in the fight after nearly being KO'd by the mediocre first round striking of Maia.

Why do fighters insist on shaking hands at the start of rounds?  I know that it is a polite show of respect.  However, it is completely unnecessary and detracts from the competitiveness and ferocity that makes the sport appealing to so many people.  Did Muhammed Ali feel the need to shake Joe Frazier's hand every time they bell sounded?  Hell no.  And it was the sense of conflict between the two -- the impending explosiveness of their fights -- that made their saga so interesting.

When the referee starts the round, MMA fighters should be bloodthirsty and ready to go, not concerned about whether they have properly greeted their enemy.  This is not a sparring match; it is a war.  Friendliness diminishes the fans' experience of the fight and, quite possibly, distracts the fighter from his mission.  For as much as I dislike GSP, I admire the fact that he does not tap gloves at the beginning of the round.  He is there to do a job -- one that requires and brutal focus.

Frankly, I am no longer a booster of Mark Munoz after his weak showing and absurd hug in the Maia fight.  I've seen more animosity in a badminton quarterfinal.  Moving forward, this kind of thing has to be discouraged by the brass.