Friday, December 27, 2013

sMMArt Money: UFC 168 – Weidman Vs. Silva 2

For many, we have arrived at the most highly anticipated mixed martial arts fight of the year.  Most of those "many" would be referencing the Silva-Weidman rematch in making that claim.  However, in the wake of the first women’s TUF which featured the most volatile rivalry in the sport (perhaps in all of sports, at the moment), a not-so-tiny minority may be more eager for the second bantamweight tango between Champ Ronda Rousey and Meisha Tate. 

As I see it, both are tantalizing.  Sixteen years into his professional career, does the Spider still have enough spring in his step to wrest the strap away from the much younger and stronger Weidman?  With concerns mounting in regards to her emotional stability,  is now the time for Ronda Rousey to crumple under the pressure?  Saturday will be a night of rematches, and a night of questions answered. 

Here is my look at the goods and the odds for UFC 168.  Auld lang syne, friends.




FEATHERWEIGHTS

Robbie “Problems” Peralta [16-4-1 MMA] -185

Estevan “El Terrible” Payan [14-4-1 MMA] +150

This could be the most evenly matched tilt of the night between two 145-pounders who were rather soundly decisioned in their respective previous outings.  Payan had a pint of plasma beat out of him by Jeremy Stephens at UFC 160, while Peralta hung with – and even wobbled – Akira Corassani back in April.  Peralta has the heavier hands, I would argue, and that may be the deciding factor.

PREDICTION: Peralta by TKO, Round 2.

TIP: Bet moderately on Peralta


WELTERWEIGHTS

“Vicious” Bobby Voelker [24-10-0 MMA] -160

William “Patolino” Macario [6-1-0 MMA] +130

Voelker looked ragged in while being KO’d by the very dangerous Robbie Lawler in July.  But he has a tremendous experience edge on 22-year-old Macario who lost in the TUF: Brazil finale in his last outing.  Although he’s on a two-fight skid, Bobby has finished 20 opponents over his career, including two TKOs of Roger Bowling.  If Voelker was able to put together a solid camp and still has his heart in the game, then this should go his way.

PREDICTION: Voelker by decision, Round 3.

TIP: Bet moderately on Voelker.


WELTERWEIGHTS

Siyar “The Great” Bahadurzada [21-5-1 MMA] -155

John “Doomsday” Howard [21-8-0 MMA] +125

The only Afghani on the UFC roster, Siyar was on a vicious tear before absorbing a 15-minute pummeling at the hands of Dong Hyun Kim in March.  He had KO/TKO’d six of his previous seven foes, including a tough Paulo Thiago at UFC: Sweden 1.  “The Great” needs to reestablish himself in the division, and I feel that he has the heart and ambition to do so.  John Howard, after a confounding game of middleweight pattycake with the fast fading Uriah Hall, has dropped back down to 170 pounds.  He’s lined up against a good number of marquee opponents in his career – Matt Brown, Thiago Alves, Jake Ellenberger, Dan Miller – but lost to all of them.  I expect Bahadurzada to land some solid leather on Saturday night.

PREDICTION
: Bahadurzada by KO, Round 1.

TIP: Bet heavy on Bahadurzada.


FEATHERWEIGHTS

Dennis Siver [21-9-0] -265

Manny “The Anvil” Gamburyan [13-7-0]  +205

This won’t be Manvil’s toughest challenge to date, but he should not take comfort in that notion.  Siver is one of the strongest men and hardest strikers in the division, while Manny is very very tough, but small and not as highly skilled.  Siver suffered a hard-fought TKO to Cub Swanson at UFC 162, but he remains a threat to the entire division.  The Russo-German kickboxer, too, is due for one of his trademark spinning back kicks.  Mark my words!

PREDICTION: Siver by TKO, Round 1

TIP: Bet heavily on Siver.


LIGHTWEIGHTS

Gleison Tibau [28-9-0 MMA] -145

Michael “The Menace” Johnson [13-8-0 MMA] +115

There’s a reason that Tibau is a slight favorite in this match-up: he is a beast.  There are reports that the Brazilian cuts thirty pounds to make weight.  Not only that, but this is Tibau’s 21st appearance in the Octagon and he has the most lightweight wins (13) in the history of the UFC.  Johnson looked spectacular in his one-sided (and surprising) beatdown of Joe Lauzon.  However, he does not have many weapons and has not had a tremendous degree of consistency as a UFC fighter.  I do not expect that to change on Saturday.

PREDICTION: Tibau by Submission, Round 2.

TIP: Bet moderately on Tibau.


MIDDLEWEIGHTS

Uriah Hall [7-4-0 MMA] -310

Chris “The Crippler” Leben [22-10-0 MMA] +240

Most assuredly, one of these two men will be receiving a pink slip after this fight is over.  Hall, though he was a terrifying monster for most of the TUF 17 season, has fought like a wet blanket in his last two outings.  What’s sad for Chris Leben is that he is a heavy underdog nonetheless.  Once a big draw with the fans, Leben came back from a one-year drug suspension to look very rusty in a decision loss to Derek Brunson.  Though his more recent outing against Andrew Craig was better, we have not seen the old “Crippler” – the one who finished Wanderlei and Akiyama and Sakara and Santiago – in about two years.  For the sake of a good fight, let’s hope that both of these men have turned the corner.

PREDICTION: Leben by TKO, round 2.

TIP: Bet lightly on Leben.


FEATHERWEIGHTS

Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier [14-3-0 MMA] -205

Diego “DB” Brandao [18-8-0 MMA] +165

Perhaps the safest prediction here is that this match-up will be a fight-of-the-night candidate.  Brandao is coming off of a wild one against Daniel Pineda at UFC Fight Night 26 in August.  But the bad news for the Brazilian is that he is facing one of the most dangerous men in the division: a Dustin Poirier who has returned to form.  Poirier was commanding in his August defeat of the very tough Eric Koch.   With a win, Poirier could see himself get back in line for a title shot, and he has a lot to lose.

PREDICTION: Poirier by decision, Round 3.

TIP: Bet heavily on Poirier.


LIGHTWEIGHTS

Jim Miller [22-4-1 MMA] -400

Fabricio “Morango” Camoes [14-7-1 MMA] +300

Due to knee surgery, Camoes has not seen the inside of a cage in eighteen months, last losing a decision to Melvin Guillard.  In the mean time, the highly regarded Miller has fought twice: as the victor in an instant classic against Joe Lauzon at UFC 155, and on the short-end of a brawl against Pat Healy (which ended up a NC due to Healy’s positive test for cannibus).  The odds here are lopsided for good reason, and reflect one of Joe Silva’s more befuddling pairings for the event.  Miller is a hard-working, well-rounded, insightful fighter who, I believe, surely will put into practice the lessons he learned from the Healy fight.

PREDICTION: Miller by submission, Round 1.

TIP: Bet heavily on Miller.


HEAVYWEIGHTS

Josh “The Warmaster” Barnett [33-6-0 MMA] -200

Travis “Hapa” Browne [15-1-1 MMA] +160

What’s not to love about this fight? One the one hand, we have an old-school catch wrestler in Barnett.  He’s both a brawler and a tactician and a grizzled vet who will put his money where his mouth is.  On the other hand, I have a hard-hitting, long-limbed athlete in the Hawaiian Browne.  The winner gets Werdum in a title contention eliminator.  Both men are en fuego.  Barnett absolutely manhandled Frank Mir at UFC 164, while, at UFC Fight Night 26, Browne survived a frightening assault by Alistair Overeem to comeback and finish the muscular Dutchman with a front kick to the face.  Barnett has earned the favorite status in this fight, but do not be shocked by an upset here.

PREDICTION: Barnett via submission, Round 2.

TIP: Bet lightly on Barnett.


BANTAMWEIGHTS

(Champion) “Rowdy” Ronda Rousey [7-0-0 MMA] -750

Meisha “Cupcake” Tate [13-4-0 MMA] +475

Rousey, as we all know, has finished every single fight in the exact same way – via first-round armbar.  And every single opponent has spent her entire training camp preparing for that very move.  So, I don’t expect anything major to change here.  Rousey may be the sport’s hungriest competitor (of either gender).  She is the definition of world-class.  Tate is a very tough woman, and was likely winning her last fight against Cat Zingano before it was stopped.  Perhaps she’ll make it into the second round this time.  But she simply does not have the fiery dedication and grit that Rousey has.  No WMMA fighter does.

PREDICTION: Rousey by armbar, Round 2.

TIP: Do not bet on this fight.  Not enough juice in the odds.


MIDDLEWEIGHTS

(Champion) Chris “All-American” Weidman [10-0-0 MMA] +140

Anderson “The Spider” Silva [33-5-0 MMA] -170

“It was a fluke.”  “Anderson did not take the fight seriously.”  “He thought he was invincible.”  “It was a lucky shot.”  The time for excuses is over.  Pound-for-pound great Anderson Silva must overcome true career adversity for the first time in nearly nine years.  Like no other, he has mowed his way through the competition and -- before Weidman knocked Anderson’s eyes back into his head -- the Spider truly looked unbeatable.  The general opinion seems split.  On one side, we have those who believe in Weidman’s wrestling, his size, his athleticism, his strength, his youth.  On the other side, we have those who believe in Silva’s technique, his precision, his cleverness, his experience, his majesty.

Anderson is 38 years old.  39 in April.  And, as far as I know, he does not indulge in career-lengthening TRT treatment.  A loss here would mean a true changing of the guard, even more dramatic than Georges St-Pierre’s recent relinquishment of the welterweight belt.  Those in the know say that the Spider has never been more focused.  But is that enough?  I think so.

PREDICTION: Silva by TKO, Round 2.

TIP: Bet lightly on Silva.

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