Go Horse!

Where does Fabricio Werdum belong?


Fabricio's name is rarely mentioned among the top five in the heavyweight division.  And, surely, some question whether he deserves a spot in the top ten.  Why?  Well, he is not a intimidating striker nor a formidable wrestler.  And he was let go by the UFC after Junior Dos Santos knocked him out.


However, let's take an objective look at Werdum's record.  He is 14 and 4, with victories over Alistair Overeem, Fedor Emelianenko, and Bigfoot Silva.  All three of those men are top ten heavyweights, if not top five.  Fabricio has also bested Gabriel Gonzaga twice, Mike Kyle and Brandon Vera.  Also, keep in mind that, of his 14 victories, 12 have come via submission or TKO.  Those, my friends, are damn good stats.

Yes, JDS knocked Werdum into the next dimension when they met at UFC 90.  But that is the ONLY time that Werdum has been KO'd.  His other three losses came via decisions.


Fabricio is arguably the most highly-skilled grappler among the big boys.  He is a two-time world champion in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and two-time champion of the prestigious Abu Dhabi World Submission Wrestling Championships.  And, in recent years, Werdum's muy thai has improved notably.  Lately, in fact, he has been training at King's MMA with Anderson Silva.


In the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix, Werdum is a dark horse.  Almost nobody expects him to win it, much less get past Overeem in their upcoming title fight.  However, "Vai Cavalo" has shown us that he deserves to be in the position he is in.  And, if Alistair is not extremely careful, he'll find himself red-faced and tapping, just like Fedor.

GSP Loses... Then What?

I guess we have to consider this option.  Cesar Gracie Academy is en fuego.  Strikeforce champions Nick Diaz and Gilbert Melendez delivered dominant performances in defending their belts this last weekend.  If their teammate Jake Shields demonstrates similar tenacity against GSP, then we may crown a new welterweight champion in the UFC.

So, on April 30, if Shields walks away with the strap, what happens in that division?  Some options:

• GSP GETS AN IMMEDIATE REMATCH:  To be honest, unless Shields absolutely destroys St. Pierre, this is the most fair option.  One loss should not drop GSP more than one rung on the welterweight ladder.  
• A NEW CONTENDER EMERGES:  Many fans, myself included, want to see something more dynamic happen in the division.  Another option would be to give a top contender -- Jon Fitch, Dong Hyun Kim, or Carlos Condit -- a shot at the belt.  Though none of them are necessarily better than GSP, this course of action would bring some spice to the UFC.
• NON-TITLE FIGHTS FOR GSP: It could be interesting and controversial to force GSP to climb his way back to the top by taking fights with guys like Nick Diaz or Jon Fitch or Anthony Johnson.  None of these would be a walk in the park for GSP.  And, if he were to regain the belt, it would be all the more meaningful.

So, yes, no matter what happens, if Shields wins the belt, GSP is still top two in the welterweight world.  However, if Dana White wants to keep the promotion compelling and keep MMA fans on their toes, he should consider various courses of action.

Nick Diaz Deserves a Shot at GSP

I have never been a fan of the Diaz brothers.  I never considered them to be top-five talents, and, even though Nick is the Strikeforce welterweight champion, I figured he'd be a bust in the UFC.  Why?  Because he is not particularly big, nor fast, nor powerful, nor freakishly skilled in striking or grapplilng.

But his knock out victory over Paul Daley last night demonstrated that he is, indeed, one of best welterweights in any organization.  And, the only next step that makes sense for Diaz is to move into the UFC and take on GSP.  After Daley, there is no one in Strikeforce that deserves to get in the cage with Nick Diaz.

Many consider Paul Daley to be the most devastating 170-pound striker in the world.  He showed that recently by knocking the stuffing out of another feared striker in Scott Smith.  But that did not faze Nick Diaz in the least.  In fact, from the moment the fight started, Diaz came forward with his chin out and his hands down, taunting Daley to unleash.  And, in perhaps the most exciting round of fighting this year, they both threw leather -- and lots of it.

Diaz did not try to take the fight to the ground.  He did not back down.  And, even after Daley hurt him, he came forward aggressively.  When the dust settled, Daley was on his back and seeing stars and Diaz had successfully defended his belt for the third straight time.  Simply put, Diaz is a pure badass.

Diaz deserves big bucks and big opportunities, not just because he is the champion, but because he is one of the most exciting fighters in the business.  And, most importantly, he is a finisher.  If GSP gets past Shields, Diaz -- not Condit, not Rumble, not Fitch -- deserves the next shot.

Middleweight Mash-Up

Anderson Silva kicked Vitor Belfort in the face, and with that put to bed any doubt about who the best middleweight in the world is.  Unless GSP moves up a weight class to take on the Spider in a superfight, there may not be a significant challenger to the UFC middleweight for a while.  However, at the same time, the middleweight is currently a breeding ground for some potentially epic match-ups that could result in ballistic knockouts.

The next notable middleweight clash will be between Wanderlei "Axe Murderer" Silva and Chris "Crippler" Leben at UFC 132.  And, although this will likely end in a bloody stoppage or KO, this is only the tip of the iceberg in the division.

• Brian Stann v. Michael Bisping: The "All American" against the British badboy.  Both are well-rounded fighters.  Both can end fights with their fists.  Both are hungry and on the rise.   Now that Bisping has crushed Rivera and Stann made minced-meat of Leben, they are on a collision course.
• Yushin Okami v. Vitor Belfort: Okami may be next in line for a shot at Anderson's belt.  However, talk of the GSP-Silva superfight has overshadowed Okami's rise.  A thrilling pit stop on his way to the championship would be a roll with the Phenom.  Okami has only been stopped once in his life, way back in 2003.  If anyone is up to the task, it is Vitor who has perhaps the fiercest fists in the division.
• Nate Marquardt v. Mark Munoz: Munoz is riding high after his first-round knockout of C.B. Dolloway.  Marquardt rebounded from his loss to Okami with a dominant decision over Dan Miller.  Both of these guys can end fights in a hurry.  Marquardt has stopped Rousimar Palhares, Demian Maia and Martin Kampmann.  Munoz proved the same against Dolloway and Kendall Grove in recent fights.

Unfortunately, there aren't many big fights that haven't already taken place in the Strikeforce middleweight division.  We've see an exhaustive round robin of battles among Jacare Lawler, Robbie Lawler, Renato Sobral, Mayhem, Shields, and even Hendo.  But the UFC is ripe and ready.

Do or Die for The Dragon?

I never thought I'd say it, but UFC 129 will be a "must-win" fight for Lyoto Machida, who will be facing off against one of the toughest light heavyweights of all time in Randy Couture.  With another loss, Machida, who was has dropped his last two fights, might be relegated to second tier in the light heavyweight division, alongside non-contenders like Forrest Griffin, Stephan Bonner, and Rich Franklin.

It wasn't always like this, of course.  After watching The Dragon obliterate both Thiago Silva and Rashad Evans, Joe Rogan declared the beginning of the "Machida Era."  Indeed, Machida seemed untouchable -- literally.  He was one of the most evasive fighters in the history of the sport, using his karate expertise to attack from just outside the range of most mortals.

But the Machida Era quickly came to a close with a controversial title defense and then KO loss to Shogun.  And, although some would contend that he deserved the decision in his fight against Rampage on November 20, 2010, Machida did not send the message that his fans had hoped he would send.

As of April 6, 2011, Machida (-500) is a strong favorite over Couture (+300).  In fact, this is the same line that Bodog is giving to GSP (-500) versus Shields (+300), which seems to be a more lopsided fight.  However, one can NEVER count out The Natural.  Especially if Couture can take Machida to the mat -- which is likely -- an upset could be in the making.  So, although my loyalty is with The Dragon, smart money takes the line on Couture.

Where does Machida go from UFC 129?  If he wins, put him back in the queue for a shot at the belt; line him up against the skyrocketing Phil Davis or, perhaps, the loser of Jones-Evans.  But, if Machida drops a third straight... well, that's a bridge he definitely does not want to cross.

Tainting the MMA Bloodline

Why, Chael?  Why?


Chael Sonnen can't stay out of trouble.  First, he had elevated testosterone levels after the Silva fight.  Then he plead guilty to money laundering related to a 2006 real estate deal.


If he was on the level, Chael might become one of the greatest fighters in the business.  He's a 2-time National Champion wrestler at the University of Oregon, and the only man to put a beatdown on Spider Silva.  But at this point, I would prefer that he not represent the UFC or Strikeforce for that matter.

Twice now, Chael has shown himself to be of questionable scruples: once in fighting and once in his outside business.  The last thing MMA needs is a target for its critics -- especially for those critics who focus on the ethics of the sport.


This, of course, goes the same for Thiago Silva.  The guy cheated, covered it up, and, once he was exposed, admitted to it.  In doing so, he defeated a fighter -- Brandon Vera -- who was trying to stage a career comeback.  Had Silva gone undetected, it wouldn't have only been Vera's nose that got smashed, it would have been his livelihood and ambitions.  


At the minimum, the UFC should levy heavy suspensions on cheaters: perhaps a 2-year suspension and fine.  And, in fact, I wouldn't be wholly opposed to permanent competition bans.


If we let admitted cheaters compete at the highest levels, then MMA is going to suffer the same loss of faith that Major League Baseball has experienced with steroid scandals involving Mark McGuire and Roger Clemons.  At this point, who can admire any new record or amazing statistical achievement in baseball?  The juice is just too widespread.


MMA is the purest of athletics: man versus man, with nothing but their own physical power, intelligence, and desire at their disposal.  If we allow just a drop of artificial substances to taint the MMA bloodline, then the sport as a whole is in trouble.

Target: Edgar

The lightweight division presents a conundrum.  Although it may be MMA's deepest talent pool, the UFC's champion -- Frankie Edgar -- is one of the least dominant strapholders in any division in the last five or so years.  Some might think this position is unfounded, considering his 8 and 1 record and his dismantling of my beloved BJ Penn in two straight title fights.

However, Edgar simply does not finish fights.  He has neither significant striking power nor submission expertise.  What he does is grind down fighters with his wrestling skills and land more strikes with his pure quickness.  Nonetheless, Edgar is a very vulnerable, under-sized lightweight champion and he may soon find himself belt-less and considering a drop to the featherweight division.

The Edgar-Maynard rematch is not particularly riveting.  It has to happen, to settle the score.  However, don't expect either of these guys to find themselves in the top 3 of the division for much longer.  Here's who is in their rearview mirror:

• Dennis Siver: He's built like a fireplug and has the scariest striking in the division.  His spinning back kick has broken many a rib and cumpled several fighters.  And, unexpectedly, when he dominated George Sotiropoulos at UFC 127, the most impressive aspect of his game was his wrestling.  There is no one at 155 pounds that Siver cannot knock out.
• Jim Miller: He knocked out the granite-chinned Kamal Shalorus at UFC 128, making it seven straight victories for the New Jersey native.  Miller is perhaps the most complete grappler in the division.  He is rising swiftly and steadily and is a truly disciplined and studious professional.
• Anthony Pettis: "Showtime" earned his nickname in his last fight against Ben Henderson.  He dominated Henderson and nearly finished the fight with one of the most exciting strikes in the history of MMA.  He ran up the side of the octagon, propelled himself into the air and kicked Henderson squarely in the jaw.  Pettis is tall, fast, unpredictable and he can finish the fight anywhere, anyhow.

Edgar-Maynard 3 cannot come soon enough.  We'll see it at UFC 130 on May 28.  After that, let's give some of these bigger and deadlier fighters a go.

Heavyweight Shuffle

Once this languishing Strikeforce heavyweight grand prix is over, there needs to be a personnel shuffle.  UFC, of course, owns Strikeforce now.  So I think it's time to cherry-pick some of the better heavyweights out of the Strikeforce division and replace them with some of the underachievers in the UFC.

Who should be promoted from Strikeforce to UFC?

• Alistair Overeem: Dana White has not sung his praises.  However, the Demolition Man has been unstoppable since late 2007.  He has obliterated everyone from Paul Buentello to Mark Hunt to Brett Rogers.  His last nine victories have all come via submission, TKO or KO, and he maybe be the most talented all-around martial artists among heavyweights in any promotion.
• Antonio Silva: Bigfoot's performances were inconsistent through 2009.  But since then he has punished Andrei Arlovski and Mike Kyle.  Most importantly, he beat the living shit out of Fedor Emlianenko in February of this year.  His striking, wrestling, and ground-and-pound have all come a long way.  At 6'4'', 265lbs, this guy could do some damage to the UFC's big men.
• Sergei Kharitonov:  He knocked out Alistair Overeem and Andrei Arlovski, and has bested Mike Russow and Fabricio Werdum.  He looked poised and powerful in his domination of Arlovski in the first round of the grand prix.

Who should be demoted from UFC to Strikeforce?

• Frank Mir: He's just not getting it done.  His last fight in September, 2010 was an unispired sham victory over a complacent Mirko Cro Crop, who just got his walking papers from the UFC.  Mir was mercilessly clubbed unconscious by Shane Carwin in their March 2010 meeting.  And he is no longer a real contender for the belt.
• Sean McCorkle:  This guys is as boring as he is big (6'7").  With unimpressive losses in his last two UFC outings, it's time to send him to the minors.

In the aftermath of the WEC and Strikeforce mergers, there is no reason that the UFC should not feature the absolute creme de la creme.  While Cain, Brock, and Shane all belong in the top 5, so do Alistair and Bigfoot.  Mix it up!