Do or Die for The Dragon?

I never thought I'd say it, but UFC 129 will be a "must-win" fight for Lyoto Machida, who will be facing off against one of the toughest light heavyweights of all time in Randy Couture.  With another loss, Machida, who was has dropped his last two fights, might be relegated to second tier in the light heavyweight division, alongside non-contenders like Forrest Griffin, Stephan Bonner, and Rich Franklin.

It wasn't always like this, of course.  After watching The Dragon obliterate both Thiago Silva and Rashad Evans, Joe Rogan declared the beginning of the "Machida Era."  Indeed, Machida seemed untouchable -- literally.  He was one of the most evasive fighters in the history of the sport, using his karate expertise to attack from just outside the range of most mortals.

But the Machida Era quickly came to a close with a controversial title defense and then KO loss to Shogun.  And, although some would contend that he deserved the decision in his fight against Rampage on November 20, 2010, Machida did not send the message that his fans had hoped he would send.

As of April 6, 2011, Machida (-500) is a strong favorite over Couture (+300).  In fact, this is the same line that Bodog is giving to GSP (-500) versus Shields (+300), which seems to be a more lopsided fight.  However, one can NEVER count out The Natural.  Especially if Couture can take Machida to the mat -- which is likely -- an upset could be in the making.  So, although my loyalty is with The Dragon, smart money takes the line on Couture.

Where does Machida go from UFC 129?  If he wins, put him back in the queue for a shot at the belt; line him up against the skyrocketing Phil Davis or, perhaps, the loser of Jones-Evans.  But, if Machida drops a third straight... well, that's a bridge he definitely does not want to cross.